France x Iceland
I think France AH -1 @ 1.71 is a decent bet. Some things to consider:
-F will not take this game relaxed. First because of the Ireland scare. 2nd because the press is constantly criticizing their game. So they have nothing to be relaxed about.
-I already produced the biggest upset of this tournament. Usually teams with poor quality rosters qualify via a strong defence. Yet Iceland is not like this. They scored in every game so far. And fueled by this attitude, they will be offensive again, and Fra will kill them.
-Truth be told, Iceland was a little lucky. Portugal totally dominated. Austria missed a penalty, and then Iceland scored in the last minute. Ice scored vs Hung through a dubious penalty. Their only truly outstanding game was vs England, but it was clear that odds were f*&^ in that game, and that value was on Iceland. So imho, it was more a bookie mistake there, than a genuine huge surprise.