Bayern x Atletico Madrid
Bayern will miss Badstuber and Robben. Atletico will miss long term Tiago, have Carrasco doubtful and will see the return of Godin. I see the match in the following way. Pep Guardiola is not a brilliant coach. He is overrated. The players that Bayern has are very good, but how many of them do you think are the best in their position? I would say 2 maybe 3. The ones i am especially fond of are Lewandowski, Muller(he is not the best in his position for sure, but he is very good in multiple positions), Tiago Alcantara(biggest mistake ever for Barca letting him go) and Lahm. All the others are in my humble opinion good, but not great. What Bayern has going for them is the German organisation and mentality. Most of their players are foreign, but they play just like a German team. They never give up, score a lot of goals from headers, score a lot of goals in the last minutes, and are generally much better at home, than away from home, so that's why we see these odds.
The odds are like this because of the public. I think we should have 1.95 on Bayern win. Atletico has the best defence in the world(or second best, after Rostov, from Russia [ joking ] ). Atleti has the perfect possible advantage, 1-0. They can play their normal defensive game.
I can not see Atletico losing by more than 1 goal. They have not lost by more than 1 goal in their last 72 games. I know Bayern is something special, but not that special to justify the odds.
Atletico +1 AH @ 1.89